Huobi Blockchain Big Data Weekly Insights (Vol.3 2018/6/20–2018/6/27)
All data in this report was captured and analyzed by Huobi Research; please cite the source “Huobi Blockchain Big Data Weekly Insights” for reference.
New data included: BTC Large Transactions Monitor, Trading Volume Distribution of Bitcoin, and Concentration of Wealth on Ethereum Network.
Abstract
-On-Blockchain Data:
This week, the number of active BTC addresses continued to decline, dropping slightly from 3.13 million to 3.12 million. The trading volume was 8.46 million BTC, stopping the increase trend of 4 weeks; the average transaction amount is 6.4BTC, decreasing 10.7%. TPS kept the same of 2.18. The total amount of transaction fees increased 81.7% to 472 BTC, with the average fee increased 112% to 0.00036 BTC, reaching the peak in the past two months. The BTC addresses was less distributed than the former week; top 10 addresses held 6% of all the BTC, increasing 0.1%. There was no hyper-amount transactions this week, while the number of big-amount transactions increased 10.2% to 1537.
This week, the number of active Ethereum addresses was 1.8 million, increased 15.4%, reaching the highest level in the past six weeks. The transaction volume dropped by 22.8% to 14.0 million ETH, but the number of transactions increased by 4.7% to 5.3 million. TPS increased 4.8% to 8.8. Ethereum addresses were more concentrated than Bitcoin and the top ten ETH holders held 10.8% of all ETH.
-Social Media Data:
In the field of digital currency, BTC, EOS, and ETH attracted the highest attention this week on a global level. The top trending events were “Rebound”, “Risk” and “Dividend” in China and were “Bots”, “Platform” and “Decentralized” worldwide. The hottest exchange and KOLs were Huobi, Fcoin and OKEX in China and were Binance, Coinbase and Bitfinex overseas.
The most active projects on GitHub were BTC, ETC, and EOS. The overall search index of cryptocurrency in Google, Baidu, and WeChat have decreased, while the search of ETH on WeChat and Smart Contract on Google significantly increased.
-Market Trading Data:
The market fell sharply this week, Monero (XMR) was the only exception whose price rose 5.5%. EOS suffered from the biggest fall by 27.2%. The volatility of BTC was the lowest (0.0031), while that of EOS was the highest (0.0075). The turnover of digital currencies showed greater polarization. Mainstream cryptocurrencies showed high correlations in price, many pairs have correlation of 0.99.
1. On-Blockchain Data
1.1 Active Bitcoin Addresses
The number of active Bitcoin addresses this week has dropped slightly from last week, down from 3.28 million to 3.13 million. The number of active Bitcoin addresses has been falling in two consecutive weeks.
The number of new addresses dropped slightly and the number of consecutive active and reactivated addresses was about the same level as last week. Among them, the number of continuously active addresses was 550,000, which accounted for 17.6% of the total number of active addresses. This ratio is comparably stable. The number of new addresses is 1.2 million, which declined 20,000 compared to last week. The number of reactivated addresses was 1.36 million, which was the same as last week.
1.2 Transactions on Bitcoin Network
Bitcoin’s trading volume fell last week, ending the upward trend for four consecutive weeks. This week’s trading volume on Bitcoin was 8.455 million BTC, down 10.8% from 9.477 million last week. The number of transactions on BTC was 1.3 million, slightly less than 1.32 million last week. The average BTC volume per transaction decreased 10.7% compared with last week from 7.18 BTC to 6.42 BTC.
1.3 Bitcoin TPS
The number of transactions per second on the Bitcoin network of 2.18, unchanged from last week.
1.4 Bitcoin Transaction Fee
The total transaction fees rose sharply compared to last week, rising from 229.9 BTC to 417.8 BTC, an increase of 81.7%. The average transaction fee per transaction was 0.00036 BTC, 112% higher compared to last week, which is the highest in the last two months.
1.5 Concentration of Wealth on Bitcoin Network
Bitcoin wealth concentration increased slightly this week. The top 10 holders held 6.01% of Bitcoins, up 0.1% from last week. The Top10–100 holders held 13.35%, up 0.04%. The holding ratios of the other addresses had a slight decrease in result of this.
1.6 BTC Large Transactions Monitor
Huobi Research defines “large transactions” as individual transactions worth over 10,000 BTC, and “extra-large transactions” as those worth between 1,000- 10,000 BTC. This week, there were no extra-large transactions on Bitcoin network; however, the number of large transactions increased from 1,395 last week to 1,537, an increase of 10.2%. The number of large transactions have been increasing for 5 consecutive weeks.
1.7 Transaction Distribution by Volume
The transaction distribution by volume on Bitcoin this week was similar to last week. However, compared to previous weeks, the proportion of large transactions over the past two weeks has increased significantly (as shown in the orange part of Figure 8), from 27% in the second week of June to 43.5% this week.
1.8 Active Ethereum Addresses
This week, the number of active addresses in Ethereum rose sharply from 1.56 million to 1.80 million, an increase of 15.4%, the most active addresses in nearly six weeks.
1.9 Transactions on the Ethereum Network
Ethereum’s trading volume dropped sharply from last week to 13.97 million ETH, a decrease of 22.8%. The number of transactions this week was 4.7% higher than last week, increasing from 5.09 million to 5.33 million. The average transaction amount was 2.62 ETH, a significant decrease of 26.1% from the previous week’s 3.55 ETH.
1.10 Ethereum TPS
This week, Ethereum’s average transactions per second was 8.8, which was 4.8% higher than last week, ending the downward trend for four consecutive weeks.
1.11 Ethereum Transaction Fee
This week, Ethereum’s total transaction fee decreased slightly from last week, from 15,000 ETH to 14,000 ETH. The average cost per transaction was 0.0027ETH, a decrease of 10% compared to last week.
1.12 Concentration of Wealth on Ethereum Network
Ethereum is more concentrated than Bitcoin. The top ten holders held 10.8% of the total supply of ETH (top ten Bitcoin holders only hold 6.01% of the total supply of BTC), the top 100 holders held almost 1/3 of the ETH supply (only 19.36% for BTC), and other holders only held 41% of the ETH supply (the other addresses of BTC hold 64.1%).
2. Social Media Data
2.1 Keyword Analysis (China)
Huobi Research analyzed text using NLP Word Cloud to extract relevant keywords and understand the overall sentiments from China’s largest Cryptocurrency online community 8btc.com. Specifically, we break down the keywords to three categories: Cryptocurrencies, Events, and Exchanges/Opinion Leaders.
In the Cryptocurrencies category, NLP Word Cloud suggests Bitcoin, EOS, and Ethereum as the three cryptocurrencies that received the most widespread attention (similar to previous weeks). Discussions on Bitcoin were mainly focused on price and trading strategies, with discussions on EOS mainly focused on whether DPoS should be the definitive consensus algorithm in the future, and discussions on Ethereum, like that of Bitcoin, also focused on price and trading strategies.
In the Events category, NLP Word Cloud suggests “Bounce (in price)”, “Risk” and “Dividend” as the three hottest words of the week. Specifically, “Bounce” refers to the community’s expectation for a bounce in Cryptocurrency’s price after the recent downtrend. Although “Risk” was also the top-trending word of last week, the focus of discussion has been different this week. Specifically, the risk refers to 1. The risk of new crypto exchanges (such as FT and OCX) absconding with individual investors’ money; and 2. The risk of unsuccessful deployment of Crypto projects after ICO. “Dividend” refers to the novel revenue model of many new crypto exchanges called “trans-fee mining” where higher trading volumes can generate dividends for users.
In the Exchanges/Opinion Leaders category, NLP Word Cloud suggests “Huobi”, “Fcoin”, and “OKEX” are the three hottest words of the week. Specifically, posts regarding “Huobi” mainly focused on Huobi’s Superhero Championship Program and HADAX’s decision to unlist INC; discussion on “Fcoin” mainly focused on the dividend ratio design as well as the validity of its business model. Posts regarding “OKEX” mainly focused on its voting-for- coin-listing procedure and its alleged price manipulation in trading Futures and Options.
We witness a drastic change in the trending topics this week, with focus on “He Yi (co-founder of Binance)”, “Zhang Jian (founder of Fcoin)”, “ZIL”, “IOTA”, “Fcoin” receiving the largest increase, while focus on “Justin Sun”, “Coinbase”, “Monero”, “Financial Crisis” and “Voting” receiving the largest decrease.
2.2 Keyword Analysis (Overseas)
We also performed NLP Word Analysis on Reddit’s r/CryptoCurrency Subreddit to understand the trending topics and overall sentiments overseas, and we similarly broke down the keywords into three categories: Cryptocurrencies, Events, and Exchanges/Opinion Leaders.
In the Cryptocurrencies category, NLP Word Cloud suggests that, same as in 8btc.com, “Bitcoin”, “EOS”, and “Ethereum” are the three cryptocurrencies that received the most widespread attention. Discussions on Bitcoin and Ethereum were focusing on the same issues as in China, while discussions on EOS focused on 1. the fact that EOS nodes are built on centralized cloud servers such as AWS and Google Cloud; and 2. Whether the price of EOS has been too high.
In the Events category, NLP Word Cloud suggests “Bots”, “Platform” and “Decentralized” as the three hottest words of the week. Specifically, “Bots” refers to whether using “Crypto Trading Bots” is profitable; Discussion on “Platform” focused on the possibility of building a decentralized freelance exchange to replace companies like Upwork; “Decentralized” refers to the discussion on whether EOS and Ripple are truly decentralized.
In the Exchanges/Opinion Leaders category, NLP Word Cloud suggests “Coinbase”, “Binance”, and “Bitfinex” as the three hottest words of the week. Specifically, discussion around “Coinbase” mainly focused on the name change from “GDAX” to “Coinbase Pro”; posts regarding “Bitfinex” mainly focused on the fact that Bitfinex Chief Strategy Officer Phil Potter has left the company.
This week on r/CryptoCurrency, the focus on “Tether”, “Lightning (network)”, “Bitfinex”, “Nodes”, “Vechain”, “Coinbase”, and “NEO” has received the largest increase, while focus on “ETC”, “Vitalik”, “Dash”, “Doge” and “Bithumb” receiving the largest decrease in a week.
2.3 GitHub Code Activity
Similar to previous weeks, BTC, ETC and EOS are the most active projects in GitHub both in this week and of all time.
2.4 Search Trends
This week, Search trends for cryptocurrencies in general experienced an apparent decrease from last week. However, there has been increase in searches of “ETH” on WeChat and “Smart Contract” on Google.
3. Market Trading Data
3.1 Rate of Return/Price Volatility
The cryptocurrency market performance has experienced a drastic decrease this week, with top Cryptoassets generally experienced a decrease of over 10% in their respective prices. Among all top 10 cryptocurrencies, XMR experienced the largest increase of 5.5% and EOS experienced the largest decrease of 27.2% in their respective prices. In terms of price volatility, BTC has the smallest volatility rate of 0.0031 s.d. and IOTA has the largest volatility rate of 0.0075 s.d.
3.2 Turnover
EOS, TRON and LTC are the three cryptocurrencies with the largest turnover this week, each with 99.6% (80% last week), 72.7% (49.4% last week), and 59.2% (44.3% last week) respectively. Stellar, Ripple and Cardano have the smallest turnovers this week, each with 8.1% (compared to 7.8% last week), 10.4% (compared to 10.6% last week) and 14% (compared to 16.1% last week), respectively. In general, high turnover cryptoassets have increasing turnovers, while low turnover cryptoassets have decreasing turnovers this week.
3.3 Cryptocurrency Price Correlations
Correlation amongst assets is the degree to which they move in tandem. The matrices above show Pearson correlations and p-values that are computed from log-returns of volume-weighted average daily prices over the past week.
This week, there are high correlations between the price of top 10 Cryptocurrencies. XMR/NEO and XMR/TRON are the only exceptions this week, with correlation rates of 0.05 and 0.13 respectively.
Huobi Research
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Huobi Research of Blockchain Application (Huobi Research) was founded in April 2016 and started research and explorations in various aspects in blockchain area since March 2018. We cover blockchain technology research, industry analysis, application innovation and economic model explorations etc. We aim to establish a research platform and to offer theoretical foundations as well as judgements of trends in blockchain to the public, ultimately promoting the development of the entire industry.
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