Weekly Market Analysis

2021.09.25–2021.10.08

SUMMARY

•September non-farm payrolls again cold, spot gold once up to touch the $ 1780 mark; U.S. stocks fell Friday as technology stocks were pressured by rising bond yields; U.S. stocks fell Friday as technology stocks were pressured by rising bond yields.

Spot market:

•Market Overview: Overall cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $2.326 trillion, up 15.8% from the previous two weeks.

•Technical analysis: BTC pulled up strongly after a sideways shakeout and returned to an uptrend. ETH rose after a sideways shake, the trend was slightly weaker than BTC.

•Stablecoin and Capital flow: USDT has bought back slightly in the last two weeks. USDT premiums continue to be negative, BTC balance in exchanges’ wallets outflowed significantly, ETH outflowed significantly.

•Miner: The BTC hash rate increased slightly.

  • Compliance agency: Grayscale Trust BTC/ETH lock-up volume remains stable this week.

Derivatives market:

•BTC futures open interests continued to rise, with small increases in basis on most major exchanges. BTC-compliant market futures contract positions rose sharply, with volume up slightly from earlier. The BTC perpetual contract funding rate turned from negative to positive.

•BTC options open interests continued to rise. There was a small increase in IV for all periods of BTC options. BTC options ultra-long-term and long-term skew are both positive and slightly up, short-term skew turned from negative to positive, and the gap between the skew of each term narrowed.

•ETH contract open interests continued to rise and basis increased slightly. The ETH perpetual contract funding rate increased slightly.

•ETH options open interests continued to rise. ETH ultra-long-term IV and long-term IV edged up, while both short-term skew and ultra-short-term skew rose sharply and the gap in skew across maturities narrowed.

Weekly Market hot spots :

  • U.S. Department of Justice Announces the Establishment of a Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team. Market sentiment shifted from neutral to greedy.

Macro Environment

BTC and ETH Spot Market Analysis

Analysis of Derivatives Market

Market Hotspots

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